Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Rupee value appreciation

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Businessworld

OMKAR GOSWAMI



Once again, I am going to do an India-China comparison. This time it is about foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate management. Hopefully, by the end of the article, you will be as convinced as I am that by letting the rupee appreciate the way it has, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is doing disservice to our economic prospects. And that Governor Zhou Xiaochuan of the People’s Bank of China is more perspicacious than his counterpart in Mumbai.

The graduate student’s textbook version of open economics unfolds thus. In any country, if the supply of dollars exceeds demand, the current price of a dollar falls. Hence, the price of the domestic currency vis-à-vis the dollar rises. If, however, the central bank continues to buy dollars, it creates demand for dollars and, thus, keeps the lid on the domestic currency’s appreciation, while increasing the country’s stock of foreign currency reserves. Here lies the rub.

For every dollar that the central bank buys, it has to release an equivalent amount of domestic currency. That increases money supply as well as bank credit. If the central bank is worried about inflation, it has to ‘sterilise’ the excess money supply. To do so, it must issue government bonds at an attractive enough coupon interest rate so that people willingly purchase such bonds for cash. The cost of such sterilisation for the economy is:

(The interest rate on domestic government bondsxvalue of the bonds used for sterilisation) — (The US treasury bill ratexnumber of dollars thus invested, adjusted for the rupee-dollar exchange rate).

With reserves rising from $193 billion in end-February 2007 to $213 billion by end-June, the RBI is, clearly, finding the task of sterilisation too onerous. Thus, from 20 March 2007, it has more or less let the exchange rate go — intervening only once in a while to buy dollars, and letting the rupee appreciate as it will.




In a space of 82 days between 19 March and 16 July of this year, the rupee has appreciated by 8.2 per cent against the US dollar, 4.3 per cent against the Euro, 12.4 per cent against the Yen, and 5.8 per cent against the Chinese renminbi.

Does it make sense? Textbook economists will tell you that the RBI has done just the right thing. It had to control inflation by tightening money supply and credit growth. And it couldn’t do so if it had to keep on buying the dollars that are coming in its billions and continuing to sterilise the rupee. It wasn’t just FII money; it was also NRI deposits and external commercial borrowing. Faced with an unprecedented inflow of dollars, it had to partially let go the exchange rate.

Now consider Governor Zhou and the People’s Bank of China. It has $1.2 trillion in reserves versus $213 billion in the vaults of the RBI. Net dollar inflows into China are far, far greater compared to India. Although inflation is not an issue, the People’s Bank also has the problem of sterilisation — indeed more so than India’s. So, you would expect the Chinese renminbi to appreciate at a far faster rate against the dollar than the rupee.

What are the facts? During the same period (19 March to 16 July 2007), the Chinese renminbi appreciated by a mere 2.38 per cent.

China’s dollar inflows are many times greater than ours. Everyone knows that ever since China agreed to experiment with its own version of the ‘float’, it has kept its currency strategically undervalued — with its central bank intervening time and time again to ensure a very slow, smooth, almost imperceptible upward crawl. Everyone knows that when the US Treasury and the IMF tell China to speed up the process of renminbi appreciation, these august bodies are politely told to shove off. So, China maintains its export competitiveness, builds world class infrastructure, attracts six times more FDI than India, and consistently grows at double-digits to become a $ 3-trillion economy.

Who knows the economics that matters? Governor Zhou or the RBI? You tell me.

Friday, July 13, 2007

Five companies that would be worth $1 billion each

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Businessworld

YATISH RAJAWAT & MANOJ VOHRA



Going public is the inflection point for most entrepreneurs and companies. While there are notable exceptions, the public listing of an enterprise is what allows it to get the capital, goodwill, managerial talent and prudential oversight necessary to become great. As importantly, public listings are what allow society at large to share in the success of the company. This fulfils its social obligation of fostering greater public participation in the economy, and ensures that commerce is encompassing and not extractive.




After wading through data on hundreds of private firms, here are five that we would love to see go public. Listing these firms, we believe, would give them a market capitalisation of $1 billion (Rs 4,100 crore) each, plus the leverage to achieve their vertiginous growth targets.

Sankalpan Infrastructure

Within a decade of its inception, Sankalpan has emerged as one of India's fastest growing integrated realty and infrastructure service providers. The company provides end-to-end services to real estate companies — ranging from acquiring land for clients, to dealing with arcane regulations, creating project plans, architecting, construction, interior design, and finally delivering the finished building to the customer.

So far, Mumbai-based Sankalpan has executed more than 600 projects worth $200 million (Rs 820 crore). This year, it has already booked projects worth Rs 90 crore — remarkable growth for a company whose revenues in 2004-05 were Rs 4.5 crore.

If listed, Sankalpan could command a market capitalisation of about Rs 1,000 crore. Given its long-term plans, this figure could quadruple and the company scrip could become a real estate bell weather. Founder Ninad Randive is building up anticipation for the move. “We may go public sometime in 2009-10,” he says.

Bharat Hotels

When founder Lalit Suri passed away last year, the management of this hotel group fell to his wife, Jyotsna. Given her untested abilities, a public listing and the introduction of professional management seems much needed. The Dubai Investment Group recently paid $40 million (Rs 164 crore) for a 5 per cent stake in Bharat Hotels. But the company will need more capital, as it plans to add 3,800 rooms at a cost of Rs 1,000 crore. Bharat has also announced its first international foray — the construction of The Grand Fort Dubai — in partnership with the Dubai-based Nakheel Group. Based on a comparison with its listed peers, we believe Bharat Hotels’ current market capitalisation would be about Rs 2,000 crore, a figure that could well double as the company’s plans fall into place.

Vijai Electricals

Vijai was founded 30 years ago by D.J. Ramesh and is one of India’s largest power equipment companies. Given India’s massive energy needs, Vijai is investing $70 million (Rs 287 crore) in expanding its product range.

To fund this expansion, the company has raised $25 million (Rs 102.5 crore) from UK-based private equity firm 3i Capital. But the capital-intensive nature of Vijai's core business and the high multiples commanded by power companies make listing an attractive option.

Given the valuations enjoyed by peers such as Bharat Bijlee, EMCO and Indo Tec., Vijai could command a market capitalisation of Rs 2,500 to Rs 3,000 crore if it listed today. Continuing growth in the power sector means that over the next few years, Vijai’s domestic market growth will probably be even faster than it has been in the past, and its valuation could touch Rs 5,000 crore by 2010.

Mahanagar Gas

Mahanagar Gas is the largest gas distribution company in India, with more than 300,000 households and 850 commercial units as its clients. It is investing Rs 1,200 crore over the next five years to expand its pipeline and needs a massive cash infusion.

Sister company Gujarat Gas has been favourably valued by investors and we believe Mahanagar Gas would be shown the same favour. With revenues of Rs 513.5 crore, the company could command a market capitalisation of Rs 1,500 crore. Since Mahanagar Gas is also expanding into neighbouring cities, such as Pune, its customer base and revenues are expected to double. This, along with the spiralling demand for delivery of piped gas in India, will ensure strong growth prospects for Mahanagar Gas, whose market capitalisation could touch Rs 4,000 crore by 2012.

VVF

Being named after two billionaires could help Rustom Godrej Pallonji Joshi become one himself. VVF, the oleochemicals and personal care products company his father started in 1939, is one of the largest FMCG contract manufacturers in India. VVF has plants in Dubai, Canada and the US. VVF also owns personal care brands, such as Doy, Doy Care Aloe Vera, Shiff and Jo, and will spend Rs 200 crore to build up its own FMCG business. If all goes as planned, the company’s revenues could cross Rs 1,000 crore by 2008.




Listing would be a good way for VVF to fund its growth plans. If the company gets itself listed today, its market capitalisation would be in the region of Rs 2,000 crore to Rs 2,700 crore, a figure that could double over the next five years.

Monday, July 02, 2007

Legal processes outsourcing

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Businessworld

LALITA ALOOR AMUTHAN IN NEW YORK, VISHAL KRISHNA
IN MUMBAI AND VATSALA KAMAT IN CHENNAI



A decade after legal work began to be outsourced to India, the industry has grown to reach an annual turnover of $60 million(Rs 246 crore). But despite the hype over how legal outsourcing and other such value-added services would alter the global economy by moving high value, white collar jobs out of western economies and into India, the fact is that this is not happening.

While the growth in the volume of legal work handled out of India by third-party legal process outsourcing (LPO) companies and subsidiaries of law firms based in the US is estimated to touch 7 per cent a year by 2010, according to the BPO Council of the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Assocham), most of the business still focuses on lower-end drafting and documentation work. Significantly, most of this work does not come from Ivy League US law firms but from American corporations looking to reduce internal legal costs.

The reasons are not hard to see. For one, regulations governing the US legal system require that any legal work done by a person who is not a member of an American bar must be supervised and vouched for by someone who is a member. While it is easy enough for a third party to monitor routine paperwork, since law is largely interpretative it is much more difficult to vouchsafe more subjective work that requires expert knowledge and training.

The political incorrectness of outsourcing, a phenomenon that is growing as the US Presidential election nears, is also intimidating many law firms, who fear both a backlash from employees and possible litigation that would generate adverse publicity for these extremely shy and secretive firms. Growing concerns over security breaches by outsourcing firms are also worrying law firms in the US, where lawyers can be debarred for breaches of client confidentiality. All these are risks that most big law firms in the US feel are not yet offset by the gains they would stand in terms of cost savings and productivity.

William Tanenbaum, international chair of the technology, intellectual property and outsourcing group at Kaye Scholer LLP and a partner in the firm’s New York office, says the mistake LPO proponents make is in assuming their industry’s trajectory will mirror that of the business process outsourcing (BPO) industry. “There’s never going to be an absolute, compelling case with legal outsourcing the way there is for outsourcing of call centres and work that are commoditised,” says Tanenbaum. “U.S. law firms are not offshoring any work because they are afraid of confidentiality issues, lack of control, besides they still have to figure out what they can send out that would be high volume enough to make it worth it.”

Tanenbaum, who advises several U.S. clients on legal offshoring issues, also says legal outsourcing will not take off in the way that information technology support and other services have because the former are highly subjective and judgement-oriented and less reducible to standard delivery models. Further, he argues, “You really are tied to specific client information and don’t get the high-volume advantage that you do when you are doing commodity work. Others may disagree, but it is a major consideration.”




Others do disagree. Christopher Arena, a partner at Philadelphia-based intellectual property law firm Woodcock Washburn LLP, says legal outsourcing will increase with time. “Corporate budgets are not getting bigger; they are getting tighter,” says Arena. “It’s an issue that’s here to stay, the law firms and the corporations and the LPOs in India should figure out a way to do it effectively.” He adds that ultimately it boils down to providing value to clients.

That could, in fact, be the key to the problem. “Law firms have less of an incentive to offshore as such, because it is their clients who foot the bill anyway,” says Sonny Ajmani, principal consultant at Opera Solutions in New York, a global consulting firm that advises clients on outsourcing and offshoring. “Unless there is peer pressure, which will induce competition or pressure from the clients to reduce costs, I don’t see law firms going the offshoring way.”

Murky Future

All this has raised a debate about the future of LPOs and any talk on the issue invariably raises widely disparate views. A study conducted last October by Evalueserve, a Gurgaon-based knowledge process outsourcing and business research firm, says that Indian LPOs were employing only 1,750 professionals. The study also took the pessimistic view that this number would grow only gradually, to 7,000 by 2010 and to 22,000 by 2015.

But local LPO firms cite a competing 2005 report from the US-based research firm Forrester, which had concluded that India had close to 12,000 LPO jobs in 2004, a number the report said would rise to about 80,000 by 2015. The local firms also claim that they are on the fasttrack to success by pointing to the scorching growth rate their industry has been enjoying over the past few years.

Mumbai-based Pangea3 is a case in point. Founded in 2004 by entrepreneurs Sanjay Sham Kamlani and David Perla, the firm has120 lawyers on its rolls and claims it can handle almost everything that a US law firm can. It boasts revenues of about $10 million (Rs 41 crore) from a roster of over 150 clients (37 of them Fortune 500 companies) and has gone through two rounds of private equity funding.

According to Valuenotes, a Pune-based business intelligence and research firm, there are about 60 such LPOs in India, performing a wide array of services for their US clients. These range from low-value services such as processing immigration documents to highly sensitive matters such as doing contract analysis for corporate mergers.

None of this is enough to convince Alok Aggarwal, chairman and co-founder, Evalueserve, and one of the pioneers of the knowledge-process outsourcing business in the country. “Unlike many areas, such as information technology, banking, finance and insurance services, where as much as 10-12 per cent of the services may be offshored to India by 2015, the corresponding figure for legal services is only 1 per cent.”

The reasons are many. For one, when companies assess their costs, legal expenses normally figure at the bottom of their list. This is partly because legal costs are not fixed and difficult to estimate. There is also a reluctance to tinker with legal costs because of the high risks entailed by negative legal outcomes.

"Nobody wants to touch legal costs because your internal counsel will tell you that if you lose one major litigation, you’ll wash away any savings you can get through offshoring," says Opera Solutions’ Ajmani.

Ajmani says there is still scope for Indian LPOs to grow. First, they should forget about trying to win the real high-end work that has a significant impact on the future of the firm like, say, litigation. Instead, he says, they should focus on more routine jobs, such as the drafting of contracts, which is essentially a standardised process and relatively easy to farm out to third party service providers.

Already, the great part of legal work being outsourced to India is of this type, with patent and trademark filings constituting about 70 per cent of all LPO revenue.

Currently, only around 10 per cent of LPO work is related to litigation support, which is categorised as high-end LPO business. However, in terms of the total global legal process outsourcing market, which is pegged by the Quatrro research firm in TTTT at $20 billion (of this $6 billion are offshorable), it is precisely the latter segment where bulk of the opportunity lies.

LPO industry leaders expect major breakthroughs in the high-end segment over the next three years.

One way of LPO firms breaking the ice on high-end work could be through enlarging their presence in the US. Acknowledging the psychological benefits attached to a local presence in some legal areas, Puneet Mohey, president, Michigan-based Lexadigm, an offshore provider of legal support services, has a team of attorneys in the US and the remaining in an office in India. "That way, the client has an attorney based in the US to interface with. That greatly increases the comfort level with offshoring.” While Mohey admits that the larger law firms in the US have not yet begun offshoring (“it’s still a wait-and-watch strategy," he says), he is confident that it will not be long before that happens as well.