Sunday, December 24, 2006

Hypocrisy about piracy

Businessworld

Latha Jishnu

Doron S. Ben-Atar is hardly your usual suspect when it comes to subversion. He is a genial giant from the world of academia, a professor of history at Fordham University in New York who has written or co-authored several books, a researcher who has won prestigious fellowships. For all that, he has managed to undermine the conventional arguments in today's hotly debated question of who owns intellectual property (IP) - simply by looking at the issue through the prism of the past.

Ben-Atar's contention is that all developed nations, especially the US, did not respect IP rights and indulged in rampant piracy - and he has detailed researches to prove this - during a certain period in their history of industrialisation. Tracing the roots of patent and copyright laws in early America, he says that during the country's industrial revolution, its very prosperity was founded on copyright infringement, industrial espionage and outright theft of IP.

What could be construed as subversion is his belief that developing countries should be allowed to do the same. He believes this for two reasons. One: no amount of regulation and policing will stamp out piracy. Indeed, a new study validates this; it shows that losses due to software piracy are rampant across the world, but are highest in the US itself (see 'Topping The Piracy Charts'). Two: it would be unfair to force developing nations to devote their scarce resources to protect the interests of the rich and powerful. He maintains that as long as the income disparity between rich and poor persists "the temptation to pirate would triumph over all principled devotions to an abstract notion of IP."

And here is a radical prescription: leaders of developing nations should pay lip service to IP agreements "and occasionally raid a warehouse full of pirated CDs or prosecute a high-profile pirate". That's because US history teaches us that symbolic acts and talk of principles, accompanied by lax enforcement, are a winning combination, he says.

This unusual perspective on intellectual piracy comes in a riveting study that Ben-Atar has brought out on the historical intellectual piracy in the US and the efforts made by Britain to stem this outflow to its former colony. Published some months ago, Trade Secrets: Intellectual Piracy And The Origins of American Industrial Power (Yale University Press) has received widespread interest. Much of the buzz around the professor's thesis has been occasioned by the growing competition to a range of American industries from the giant manufacturing hub of China, and to a lesser degree, India and other emerging economies.

Ben-Atar takes pains to highlight the many ironies surrounding the IP issue in America. At the same time that the young republic was indulging in full-scale piracy, it had also enacted the most exacting patent laws which required inventions to be original and novel across the world, and not just in America - unlike Europe which granted patents to introducers of technology in use elsewhere. That set new standards for protecting IP. But, shows Ben-Atar, it was a Janus-faced approach. Nearly every branch of manufacture in the US was founded upon imported skill and machinery which was smuggled in because there were strict prohibitions in Europe, especially in Britain, against the emigration of skilled artisans and the exportation of machinery.

The IP laws were actually a smokescreen for a very different reality, says the Israel-born academic who went to study in the US 25 years ago. The statutory requirement of international originality and novelty did not hinder widespread and officially sanctioned technology piracy. In fact, most of the patent applications were for devices already in use, since getting a patent involved little more than successful completion of paperwork.

But what use is the past in the current battle by the US and allies to impose the WTO-mandated trade related aspects of intellectual property rights (TRIPS) agreement on developing countries? Does history have any lessons for today's IP warriors in an intensely contested arena? Ben-Atar says it is important to remind Americans of their past so that they better understand what is happening in other parts of the world. "Before Americans rush to condemn those who pirate our knowhow, they must not forget how the US became the richest and most powerful nation on earth."

Towards the closing decades of the 18th century, the British colonies of North America were mostly underdeveloped agricultural settlements. The foundations of the American empire were laid during the next 75 years as the US was transformed from an underdeveloped decentralised entity on the periphery of the Atlantic economy into the hub of industry, wealth, and power. "Piracy," says Ben-Atar flatly, "played a crucial role in this process."

So, if the developing world is taking a similar route, the US should not be complaining. It is no surprise, says he, that while all WTO members promise to respect international IP rights, in practice, developing nations do little to enforce those laws. His basic point is that all efforts to protect technology are destined to fail. "If past patterns are going to be repeated, within a short time, local entrepreneurs in the developing world will acquire, by whatever means, America's trade secrets and produce the desired goods and services on their own."

The latest collision between the US and China on IP violations substantiate his position. In recent weeks, the confrontation between the two trading par-tners has accelerated over US charges that China's state-owned car manufacturer, Chery Automobile Company, had stolen the design from General Motors to make its QQ model. In December last year, GM filed a lawsuit against Chery Automobile for alleged piracy of the design of its Chevrolet Spark, developed by its South Korean affiliate Daewoo. In recent days, US officials have been stepping up the heat on the Chinese government to crack down on IP theft.

According to the US commerce department, Chinese piracy is bleeding America of nearly $24 billion annually.

In a sharp attack two weeks ago, US commerce secretary Donald L. Evans told the Chinese leaders that they had to 'forcefully confront' the widespread violations of IP rights in China to avoid strains on bilateral relations. While Chery has denied the piracy charge and said that it "is one of the key state-backed automakers that depends on itself for development", the Chinese government's response has been laconic. It has advised GM to resolve the issue through mediation or legal means.


That is likely to prove costly for GM, since QQ's sales are already way ahead of the Spark, which was launched after the Chinese mini-car hit the roads. And in a most ironic twist, the six-year-old Chery - it is China's eighth largest automaker with sales of around 90,000 vehicles - has just signed a deal with a major American car firm to export cars to the US. Some analysts believe it is Chery's deal with Visionary Vehicles (in which it has also committed to investing $200 million in the Chinese company) that has prompted the high-decibel Washington response.

There are others who believe that the Ben-Atar is only too right about the impossibility of checking IP theft. The US justice department for one. It said in a recent report that the country was losing the battle against piracy. This is especially true of software. According to the first annual study on software piracy conducted in 2003 by Business Software Alliance (BSA) and IDC (the IT industry's market research and forecasting firm), the industry is losing about $30 billion annually. The rate of losses, however, are the highest in Eastern Europe (71 per cent) compared with 53 per cent for the Asia-Pacific region.

All of which, it would appear, underlines the futility of enacting legislation to prevent the diffusion of knowledge. Ultimately, says Ben-Atar, devoting resources to enforcing western standards of intellectual property in the developing world is not only hypocritical and sometimes cruel, but above all, a futile act. "A country's most valuable asset is not yesterday's invention, but tomorrow's innovation.



Thursday, December 21, 2006

Petroleum company's initiative in the rural market

The Rs 10,957-crore Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) entered the rural markets two years ago. The idea was increased market development that would then lead to the sale of its LPG cylinders. Before kicking off the pilot study in Uttar Pradesh, it set up community kitchens in forest areas. However, the investment required was a steep Rs 1.5 lakh-2 lakh per kitchen and the response was not very good. Then, it decided to work on the project jointly with MART (Marketing and Research Team, Delhi). With the JV in place, a single community kitchen costs about Rs 10,400, including the cylinders, equipments, manpower, etc.
Businessworld

JANHAVI ABHYANKAR
This JV has reduced the setting up costs, because MART helps HPCL in creating awareness among the people and setting up the kitchens. Since the Rs 200-odd per cylinder seemed unaffordable for the rural poor, HPCL also came up with Rs 95 cylinders, with 5 kg gas in each of them.

There are now 589 rasoi ghars in place, with another 720 planned by the year end in UP, Madhya Pradesh and Orissa. HPCL has about 50 per cent penetration in the four districts of UP where it started off. Not only do they cook in community kitchens, but self-help groups are also taking interest in the project. What they do is pool a certain amount of money and when about Rs 800 (the cost of an individual connection) is collected, they have a lucky draw and the woman who wins gets her own connection.

This project has several social benefits for now. First, it helps in making the women independent. Second, it also enables safe and healthy cooking. A World Health Organization study revealed that Indian women who use firewood for cooking inhale the same amount of carcinogen benzopyrene as if they were to smoke 20 packets of cigarettes a day. With clean fuel becoming available, women are saved of long, tedious walks into the forest. This has not only reflected been in mothers’ health, but also in young girls’ school attendance, which has gone up by approximately 10 per cent. Third, it saves the environment. Every 100 rasoi ghars help save about 3.6 million trees per annum.

According to Harish Arora, brand manager (LPG), HPCL, this is on a no-profit no-loss basis. However, in the long term, this project might generate revenues for HPCL . It is more focused on selling the concept and making people aware of things at present. They are working with various NGOs and hospitals, among others. The project with MART is one of the successful ones. “Soon we plan to make branded food available in villages where we plan the next 720 kitchens,” says MART’s Singh. A proposal for setting up 80,000 such rasoi ghars is currently pending with the Prime Minister’s Office.

Monday, December 18, 2006

Via Satellite


The VSAT technology is visually associated with satellite dishes that receive and transmit radio signals——but the term very small aperture terminal includes a Radio Frequency Transceiver (RFT) and a single-box hardware device (indoor unit), which decodes these signals and makes them readable by the connected user device (server, PC, printer, phone/fax, EPABX).

Multiple user devices receiving these signals from a single satellite dish and VSAT make up a Local Area Network (LAN) usually within one building or city. A number of such satellite dishes and VSATs along with the central transmitting satellite dish form a Wide Area Network (WAN), spanning across a region or the entire country.

A VSAT network has the capacity of carrying data, video, and voice signals. It also provides broadband internet service directly to the end user, which is particularly useful in remote locations. The same satellite that provides VSAT services is also used in transmitting television signals—in India the opening up of the Ku band wavelength has made Direct To Home (DTH) beaming of television channels possible.

Comparisons

In each category of service VSATs face competition from terrestrial networks. The capital costs of setting up terminals were higher but their operating costs were lower than terrestrial transmitters like cable or wireless. Broadband internet through VSATs is more reliable and easy to set up; moreover it does not require complicated hardware (or software) to connect directly to the end user device. And it is most secure for companies to manage their countrywide operations without logging into the unsafe and virus-infected World Wide Web.

These comparisons no longer hold true. In the last few years the emergence of wi-fi and wi-max technologies, the increasing use of mobile internet access, and even the provision of broadband access by traditional telecom operators has made investment in VSAT for internet or voice/fax communications expensive and unnecessary.

The fast-spreading networks of optic fibre cables have also given companies the option of using terrestrial transmissions for their operations. So recently there has been a decline in the sale of VSAT satellite dish terminals worldwide.




However in terms of security and reliability VSAT networks are still more relevant for corporate entities and government departments.

Intranets

The largest user of VSAT worldwide is the US Postal Service. The other big names using these services are Ford, BP/Amoco, Wal Mart, India’s National Stock Exchange, China’s Shenzen Stock Exchange, Volkswagen Brazil, Japan’s Bridgestone Tyres, and India’s National Informatics Center.

A corporate intranet should be only accessible to the headquarters and branches of the company, and such reliability is provided only by VSAT networks. Secondly as the company operations expand the network can be safely expanded simply by adding standalone terminals at every new branch.

VSAT networks provide security and confidentiality of communications in transmitting and receiving sales figures & orders, as well as for receiving internal communications, parts ordering, service bulletins, and interactive distance learning training courses from the manufacturer. For retail chains like Wal Mart, the processing of credit card transactions and their instant recording at the company headquarters is made possible through VSAT terminals. The same is the case with gas and petroleum retailers. For such security and confidentiality money transactions bank branches also rely primarily on VSAT networks.

India and the VSAT policy

India’s policy towards VSAT technology was initially marked by over-regulation and high cost. The compulsory licensing provisions and steep entry fees stunted the growth of VSAT services. Although now the inflated costs have been brought down they are still inflated when compared with other countries. This becomes clear from the figures provided in the latest Department of Telecom policy:
(a) Registration Fee: Rs. 10,000/- per VSAT.
Lease of VSAT Annual lease charges including maintenance
(i) For data service: Rs. 3.00 lakhs/ VSAT/ Year
(ii) For data & occasional voice service in closed user group:
Rs. 3.50 lakhs/ VSAT/ year
(iii) Cost of modules repaired/replaced will be charged extra.
(iv) Minimum lease period: One year
(b) Installation charges: Rs. 15,000/- per VSAT
(c) Satellite Access charges: Rs. 10,000/- per month/VSAT
(d) Occasional voice calls within closed user group:
Rs. 85/- per minute or part thereof
(e) Volume charges: Rs. 50/- per kilo segment (1 kilo segment is equal to 64 kilobytes)
(f) Minimum usage charges: Rs.5,000/- per VSAT/ month


Other restrictions and conditions are meant for intranets, called here Closed User Groups (CUG):
i) Interconnection with PSTN not permitted (The telecom policy in India has always been to disallow voice traffic through VSATs)
ii) Interconnection with other VSAT networks shall be permitted through the Hub on case-to-case basis, wherever the CUG nature of the network is not violated.
iii) Interconnection with terrestrial data lines leased by customers of VSATs shall be permitted on case-to-case basis, wherever the CUG nature of the network is not violated.
iv) Interconnection with terrestrial data lines of a public nature shall be permitted through the Hub provided it is connected to a public data network such as Internet/ INET.
v) Interconnection with overseas office of the CUG for data transfer purposes shall be permitted on a case to case basis subject to the condition that the connection should be between the hub and the server of the overseas office through a leased line passing through an international gateway which can be monitored for security purposes.
vii) Internet/INET:- The hub of VSAT licensee shall be allowed to be connected to an internet node of his choice through a lease line taken from Telecom service provider who is authorised to sell bandwidth/ leased line. Similar inter-connection of the Hub with INET is also permitted.
viii) Other media to provide for redundancy:- Switchover between a terrestrial CUG network and a VSAT based CUG network belonging to the same licensee shall be permitted for redundancy purpose.
Voice Traffic:- Occasional voice traffic is permissible strictly within the CUG.
Data Rate (Transmission speed):- A maximum data rate upto 512 Kbps per VSAT (including all carriers) in star configuration and upto 2 Mbps in mesh configuration.


India was also one of the only countries to disallow Ku-band satellite communications. It continued to use C-band and extended C-band for communications and transmission of television signals till early 2000.

The reason for not investing in the Ku-band was that the shorter wavelength signals tended to absorbed by rain and snow clouds. In a country with annual periods of monsoon this technology was not considered viable. But with improving technology in the construction of satellite dishes and the increasing power of satellites, this small hurdle could be overcome.




So in 2000 the government permitted VSAT operators and Internet Service Providers to buy broadband slots on foreign satellites provided that the applications went through the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO). In April that year ISRO successfully launched the INSAT-3B with Ku-band transponders into space.


Subsequently the INSAT-4A was launched in 2005 with more Ku-band capacity. This opened up the Direct to Home (DTH) service of satellite TV channels, which had earlier been beamed from foreign satellites. But the DTH segment was hurt by the failure of the INSAT-4C satellite launch in June 2006—the other launch will be of the INSAT-4B from Guyana on an Arianne Space Rocket.

Apart from the National Informatics Center, Stock Exchanges, Banks, and Companies, India’s Department of Posts has made the fullest use of the VSAT technology. The reach of the century old postal department takes it to the remotest desert village and mountain hamlet—places where the telephone and even roads have not reached. For this reason the provision of internet services like printed e-mail, letters, and greeting cards has been made possible through its VSAT network. The DOP also acts as a bank and depositor for the rural populace and the VSAT network is useful in making speedy delivery of money orders.

From the DOP website:
Money Order transmission through VSAT Network

India Post, in its endeavour to reduce the transit time for transmission of Money Orders, set up a network of 150 Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) High Speed VSAT Satellite Money Order (SMO) stations across the country during the Ninth Five Year Plan. These 150 SMO Centres are in turn connected to 1,486 Extended Satellite Money Order (ESMO) Stations over dial-up connection. 15.10 Million Money Orders were transmitted through this VSAT network during 2004-05. The Software Development Centre located in Postal Training Centre, Mysore, developed the application software for transmission of Money Orders.

Corporate e-Post

1.26 The corporate version of e-Post service was launched on 18th October, 2005 by Hon’ble Minister for Communications and IT during the closing celebrations of the Sesquicentennial Year of India Post. The corporate version of e-Post would enable:-

• Simultaneous sending of a message to 9,999 addresses.

• Scanning of the message at the premises of the senders. This will enable the corporate customers to prepare their message on their official stationery, scan it and then send it from their own computers.
The value added postal services offered by India Post in recent years include Speed Post, Business Post, Express Parcel Post, Greetings Post, Data Post, Speed Post, Passport Service, Bill Mail Post, e-Post and e-Bill Post. In the area of financial services, new services introduced include facilities for International Money Transfer, Electronic Fund Transfer, Electronic Clearance Services, Warrant Payment, Sale of Mutual Funds and Bonds etc.


Corporate experiments

In tune with other corporate entities India’s textile giant Skumars also set up its own VSAT intranet in 1999. However they saw an opportunity in entering the e-commerce market because at that time PC penetration (and therefore the reach of the internet) was very low. Their aim was to set up e-commerce kiosks in league with local franchisees to provide customers with service like ordering goods, obtaining distance education, and posting classified advertisements. And this vast network was to be connected through VSATs, totally bypassing the nascent Internet—ironically the name chosen for this venture was Skumars.com!

It turned out to be a fiasco due to the over-ambition of the Skumars group and the rigid regulation and high price of setting up VSAT networks in those days. Moreover the whole concept of the internet was to provide choice, reviews of products, and interaction between customers, which such a closed network negated.




A smaller but more successful corporate VSAT venture was Delta Innovative Enterprises (DIEL). Like the postal department DIEL provided facilities for transmitting e-letters, e-faxes, and e-mail from and to remote locations. Its services are limited to the southern state of Tamil Nadu. But both Deltamail and Deltafax cost only Rs. 10 per page, while e-mail is charged at Rs. 5 per message, making it cheaper than the services of the Postal Department. DIEL’s services are under threat from the growing popularity of cellular networks and the ease of communicating and sending messages via cell phones.

Opportunities

There are many exciting growth areas for the VSAT services business. Many corporates used their VSAT networks to educate (and interact with employees) in the branches. This evolved into the transmission of education courses like the MBA and now covers the entire band of educational courses taught privately or even in traditional schools and colleges. Here again ISRO has its edusat (educational satellite) program to cater for the vast Indian population.

VSAT distance education scores over internet-based e-learning because of the real-time exchange of visuals, voice, and data between students and teachers. The only drawback of course is the high cost of setting up the network. Related to this is the field of Telemedicine, where a specialist surgeon can instruct another doctor in the village to perform an emergency procedure on his patient who neither has the time nor the money to travel hundreds of miles to the city.

In the rural areas the lack of cell towers limits the use of mobile phones. In the extremely remote regions VSAT terminals are the most convenient windows to the outside world. This is especially true in the midst of natural calamities like earthquakes and floods. The problems in rural areas relate to the positioning of the terminal unit—it is so sensitive that even slight changes in direction due to strong winds or accidental movement of the dish cuts transmissions from the satellite.

Secondly the VSAT units are highly sensitive to changes in voltage and have to be properly earthed in order to protect the equipment from overloading and from lightning strikes. India is normally supplied with a 220V current, but the voltage can vary from 150V to 280V. To provide a stable voltage of 220V to the VSAT units, an offline Constant Voltage Transformer (CVT) and an Uninterrupted Power Supply (UPS) unit have to be used.

Commercial providers of VSAT services in India (17/05/2006)

Essel Shyam Communications Ltd.

HCL Comet Systems and Services Ltd.

Comsat Max Ltd.

TVC India pvt. Ltd.

Bharti Televentures Ltd.

Hughes Escorts Communications Ltd.

Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers Ltd.

ITI Ltd.

Tata Services Ltd. (TSL)

Software Technology Park of India (STPI)

Infinium India Ltd.


Friday, December 15, 2006

The future of search

Businessworld

John Battelle calls it the ‘database of intentions’. The co-founding editor of Wired magazine authored the best-selling Search (2005), demystifying what is universally regarded as the Internet’s biggest killer application. Consider Battelle’s underlying opening message: every search query, fed in by one of the hundreds of millions of people worldwide who use search engines like Google, Yahoo!, AOL, MSN for everything they do, gives us a glimpse into what users are curious to know or find interesting. When all those billions of queries are aggregated, what you get is a goldmine of intelligence into the deepest desires of mankind. And such a ‘database of intentions’ would be useful for innumerable reasons — for just about anybody. For marketers. For politicians. Even terrorists.

The quantum of online information is increasing rapidly. In the past year, the number of Web pages indexed by popular search engines has doubled to about 18 billion. Most of this is perhaps irrelevant, and only some of it is treasure. But what use would the relevant data be if you couldn’t find it through the streams of junk. Search has allowed human beings to fulfil a basic need: to find what they want. By turning one of mankind’s innermost desires — the search for information — into a marketing platform, search has become the hottest business online. To understand it better, just consider the home page of the world’s most popular search engine, Google.

Type a query, say ‘home loans’, onto that blank white bar and wait for the results. What you see on the left side are the organic results. On the right side, you’ll see the sponsored links. Advertisers bid on Google to get onto the right-hand side first page. And that’s how Google makes its money.




Think of the organic results as the editorial of a publication. And the sponsored links that you see on the right side as the advertisements. It costs Google $3.4 billion to have the organic results up and running. It makes $6 billion on the sponsored links (paid search). Each time a user clicks on a sponsored link, Google gets a percentage fee.

This paid search market, also known as search engine marketing (SEM), is fast becoming the most disruptive advertising medium. In 2005, it is estimated to have generated $10 billion worldwide — 40 per cent of the total online advertising market. Google had 64 per cent of that market last year. It is expected to grow 41 per cent in 2006, according to a report by US-based securities firm Piper Jaffray.

In India, of the $35-million online advertising market, search engine marketing is estimated at $5 million-6 million. Most of it is attributed to global advertisers reaching out to Indian users. “Only 10-20 per cent of this is Indian advertisers reaching out to Indian consumers,” says Mahesh Murthy, founder of Pinstorm, an SEM firm. This market is expected to double by end-2006. Search query volumes tripled in 2003-04 and then doubled in 2004-05. However, it is still way behind the Chinese search market that is estimated at $230 million.

The players jumping into search come from a host of seemingly disparate industries. Microsoft (msn.com) is the biggest software corporation, while Amazon (a9.com) is the biggest e-commerce player in the world. They feel the need to enter this market because Internet search is blurring the territories and threatening leadership across various domains. Take Amazon. Traditionally, users have gone onto its portal directly. Now if the user ‘googles’ for Harry Potter, Amazon would be just one of the landing pages that Google offers. Microsoft’s dominance of the desktop is getting threatened as Google bundles in several office applications online, like Google Desktop, for free. So, instead of Windows being the de facto landing page, Google could end up taking over that role.

Left vs Right
Clearly, search is the most popular means for users to find information and buy products. According to an industry report, 32 per cent of all products purchased online were after search queries. “Search is disruptive because the marketing statistics we give the advertiser are quantifiable, monetisable and live,” says Ashish Kashyap, head (sales and operations), Google India. For advertisers, this solves two long-standing challenges that traditional media presented. One, there was too much of a gap between the advertisement’s screening and the consumer’s intent to purchase and his actual purchase. Two, the actual quantifiable link between the advertisement and the actual purchase couldn’t be accurately determined.

Search solves both these problems across categories. Take home loans, again. Marketers say the best time for a home loan marketer to be present in an online consumer’s mind is when he’s searching for products like a home loan. So, if HDFC is on the sponsored links, it knows which keywords are most popular, which give it the most leads, and where they come from. Says Rohit Mull, marketing head, Tata AIG: “Search gives us our highest click rates.” Sharekhan.com has, in fact, increased its search budget 20 times in the past year.

You could, of course, argue that many of these people could just be researching home loans for, say, an article like we sometimes do. Says Rishi Behal, director (search), Yahoo! India: “Over 25-30 per cent of the queries generated are commercially-saleable keywords.” That’s the audience that companies like Tata AIG and Sharekhan.com consider relevant. Further, Behal says that 20 per cent of users querying ‘commercially-saleable keywords’ actually click on the sponsored links (that’s when the search engine gets a percentage fee).

Search has another dimension: search engine optimization (SEO). Many companies use Web analytics to crack Google’s algorithm, so that their website is part of the organic results on Google’s coveted first page. Companies prefer using SEO to SEM. It is cheaper to come on the list and more effective because users are more likely to click on organic results than the sponsored links. In the US, SEO constituted 12 per cent of the search industry in 2004, according to a non-profit SEM association. However, marketers say it will continue its slide behind SEM. Typically, 93 per cent of users don’t go beyond the first 20 results. As more companies vie for the first few and as they find it difficult to keep pace with Google’s changing algorithm, it is becoming tough for businesses to come on the first couple of pages. Even for popular keywords, companies can take 6-12 months to have a chance of being featured on the first page.




Companies are, therefore, becoming aggressive on their SEM strategy. Although it’s far less effective for an advertiser to be on the sponsored links, companies can buy their way onto effective leads by paying more. SEOs are also in conflict with a search engine’s interest. One, because if businesses crack the algorithm of a search engine, it dents the latter’s credibility. Second, because for every dollar an advertiser spends on SEO with an Internet marketing firm, Google loses a higher dollar in its SEM revenues. To tackle these issues, search engines frequently change the algorithm of its search.

To keep costs low, companies are now outsourcing SEO work to small software firms in the developing world. And, India is becoming an outsourcing centre. Says Prabuddha Raychaudhuri, CEO of SEOguru Technologies: “There are about 100 Indian software companies doing substantial work in helping foreign companies come on that first page.”

The Next Battle
Type ‘Tom’ on Google, and scan through the first 10 of the 300 million-odd results you get. Each result on the opening page is different, depending on the context or intention that the search engine interprets. As you move onto the next few pages, you’ll find some of the results repeating. It might take a while before you find what you were looking for. It could be Tom Cruise, Tom Clancy or Tom and Jerry.

Now, try the same exercise on ‘smart’ search engines like Clusty.com or Mooter.com. On the page, you’ll find clusters which group all pages under various categories. So, all scattered results referring to Tom Cruise will be grouped together. That’s the first step. Then, there are new search products (like Yahoo! Answers) that answer questions like ‘How old is Tom Cruise?’ Such a Q&A is the next level of intelligent search. Says Dr Prasad Ram, CTO, Yahoo! India: “The future of search is when you do not have to search, but just look up information. The search engine will need to understand users’ context, intent, community, and presentation preferences.”

That’s where most of the battles will be fought — to make search more relevant, contextual and intelligent. Take Naukri. For the past six years, the website has been on a resume-adding spree — it adds 8,000 resumes everyday. The database now numbers 5 million. “It has become a jungle, and we have to bring some order in all this chaos,” says Sanjeev Bikhchandani, CEO, Naukri. In other words, his customers (recruiters) cannot sift through each resume to find the right people. Intelligent search can allow Naukri to present the top 10 percentile of resumes to recruiters, based on several parameters.

Intelligent search also throws up business ideas. Pinstorm found that the number of people searching for a ‘hotel room in Mumbai’ was 960,000 last year. They also found the number of Indian companies marketing their hotel rooms online to be far lower. So, they launched a hotel bookings portal called instabooking.com after tying up with some hotels.

Search India
Khoj was the first Indian search engine launched by Rajesh Jain under the Indiaworld portfolio in 1997. When he sold the portal to Sify in 1999, Khoj was part of the deal. But it has been nothing more than a directory search. Jain has now invested in Bangalore-based Seraja, which will soon launch Eventweb, a search engine that enables Indians to track events. However, industry veterans feel Indian companies have missed the paid search engine opportunity.

V. Ramani, CEO, Mediaturf, says a vernacular Indian search engine is still 3-4 years away. “First, we need vernacular Windows desktops and keyboards. Then, we need vernacular content. Then, regular search will need to index this content. And once traffic picks up, only then can paid search take off,” he says. In China, regional content (in Mandarin) couldn’t be googled. That’s where Baidu (52 per cent traffic share) found an opportunity. It is bigger than Google (33 per cent) today in China in terms of traffic. In June 2004, Google acquired a 2.6 per cent stake in Baidu.




Rediff is possibly the only leading Indian Internet company that is spending heavily on Web search to further localise and personalise the service for India. It has been beta-testing its faresearch (travel), jobsearch and newshound (news) programs after crawling (scanning) the relevant sites.

Murthy, however, thinks it is difficult for an Indian search engine to compete with the global giants. “No Indian Internet company can match these guys on scale or technology,” he says. Don’t forget, both Google and Yahoo! are ramping up their India operations aggressively. Yahoo! is launching its paid search model called YSM (earlier Overture) in India by May this year, and is also beta-testing a job search.

But vertical or specialised search of the kind Rediff and Yahoo! are attempting is both a threat and an opportunity, says Bikhchandani. “The opportunity exists because users can access our resumes even when people use general search engines to find ‘jobs’... and a threat because, then, some may not find the need to come to our portal directly.”

Wait, then, for the next battle in search to begin!


alternative search engines:


What Indians searched for most in October 2006:

India - Popular Queries: October 2006

indian railways (consistently the top search item for Indians)
diwali (the all-important festival of lights)
rediff (the biggest Indian web portal)
air deccan (one of the many new low-cost private airlines)
indian airlines (the state run airline)
sania mirza (the female tennis star also written about for her looks and style)
wikipedia
aishwarya rai (the highest paid and most beautiful female actor)
cricket (India's madness)
rangoli (the decoration of house floors in colorful designs during Diwali)
nokia
airtel (leading private cellular operator)
katrina kaif (attractive female actor-celebrity)
salman khan (actor and companion of above)
angelina jolie (recently visited India)

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Latin American economies

businessworld kenneth rogoff

(Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2006)

When is the US going to wake up to what is happening in Latin America? The growing influence of Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chávez, is casting a shadow over the region. Some countries like Chile and Columbia remain committed to progressive and democratic regimes. But over the past year, allies of Chávez have come to power in countries such as Ecuador and Bolivia, and just missed winning in a few others. In Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador would have seized the presidency had he convinced just a quarter per cent more voters to support him.

With almost everyone else pursuing market-oriented economies, why is Latin America veering dangerously in another direction? Is it because some voters do not appreciate having single-digit inflation, down from an average of more than 300 per cent 12 years ago? Fortunately, at least half the voters appreciate these improvements. Nevertheless, a growing schism between left and right has led to a distressing level of policy paralysis. This is nowhere more apparent than in Mexico. Its growth has ranged from poor to tepid since its economic crisis a decade ago. Why has it not benefited more from the 1992 North American Free Trade agreement?





Part of the problem is China, whose ultra-low wages provide competition for Mexico. But the real issue is a political system unable to reach consensus on economic reforms. Its new president, Felipe Calderón, speaks of the need to break up Mexico’s monopolies. Where will he start, telephones or tortillas? There is too much choice.

Peasants toil on tiny plots of land, in a form of disguised unemployment similar to that seen in rural China. The state-owned oil company invests too little in technology. Crime abounds. International comparisons of corruption are not flattering. Worse, López Obrador seems willing to throw Mexico into turmoil rather than accept his defeat. So, how is the US planning to react? By following through on plans to build a 2,000-mile wall across its southern border.

Brazil, meanwhile, has shown great stability. Yet, if it is to enjoy growth above the modest levels, the country needs to reform its labour laws, open itself more to foreign trade, and improve its primary education system.

With Latin America’s two largest economies in a holding pattern on reform, it is that much more difficult for even the region’s high flyers, like Chile, to achieve escape velocity into a sustained high growth orbit. Even the weak growth of the last few years in Latin America marks the region’s best performance since the 1970s, and incomes are actually catching up to those in the US, Europe and Japan. Nevertheless, Latin America remains the slowest growing among the world’s developing regions. It is not only China and India that are growing faster, but also Central Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East. Even Sub-Saharan Africa has enjoyed more rapid growth in the past few years.

Does the pied piper of Venezuela offer a better way to grow? Unfortunately, no. Venezuela is merely being pulled along in China’s tailwind, thanks to high oil prices. When oil prices collapse, as they will at some point over the years, Venezuela’s economy will also collapse. With production still running far below the level when Chávez took over, there is little doubt about how this story will end.





In today’s global economy, there is no ‘third way’ for countries to avoid continued liberalisation. The current instalment of Latin American socialism is all too likely to produce a re-run of tragic episodes from the past.

In this context, the US’s indifference towards the region is both naive and dangerous. The Democratic US Congress has signalled that free trade deals with Peru and Columbia need to be ‘renegotiated’. What kind of message does that send to the US’s few remaining allies in the region? If the US does not start embracing its friends in Latin America, it may take a generation to undo the damage.

Sunday, December 03, 2006

The retail behemoth enters India

Businessworld
M. Anand

In October, even as global giants like Wal-Mart, Tesco and Carrefour were trying to get an entry into India, Corbett, 64, engineered Woolworth’s ingenious debut here. In a deal with the Tata Sons-promoted Infiniti Retail, he positioned Woolworths as the sole supplier of all products that would be sold by Croma, Infiniti’s electronics retail chain. This virtually gave Woolworths unhindered access to Indian consumers, even though it could not sell to them directly.

Corbett is widely expected to make a big contribution in shaping Wal-Mart’s India policy. His appointment came days before Wal-Mart signed an MoU with Bharti Enterprises to jointly explore business opportunities in India.

Wal-Mart has been eyeing India for a couple of years now. It already has a $600-million sourcing operation here for its international stores. And
though Indian laws allow 100 per cent FDI in cash-and-carry outlets (like Wal-Mart’s Sam’s Club) that sell only to the trade, Wal-Mart has chosen
not to take this route.

The company’s decision to go in for an Indian partner and Corbett’s induction is, perhaps, a sign that it is preparing a full-scale roll out of its other formats including Wal-Mart Supercenter.

There is much speculation that the Wal-Mart-Bharti alliance could be similar to the Woolworths-Tata joint venture. Here Wal-Mart may set up the back end and do all the sourcing, while Bharti is likely to set up the outlets. A full-fledged franchise agreement, with Wal-Mart controlling the merchandise is another possibility. Both could give Wal-Mart indirect access to Indian consumers without flouting FDI norms.

The Economic Times

Sunil Mittal-led Bharti Enterprises is expected to launch Wal-Mart-branded stores in the country. The revenue-sharing agreement is expected to be sealed in the next 10 days. As part of the franchisee agreement, Bharti will pay a royalty (roughly 2-3% of sales) to Wal-Mart for using the brand name, sources said.

The venture is likely to invest about Rs 10,000 crore. However, the 50:50 joint venture will not invest in real estate and will look at third party investors to partner them in the infrastructure. The JV will be a separate retail company and primarily focus on retailing of fresh foods, staples, grocery and other convenience foods.

The first few stores will be rolled out in Mumbai, Bangalore and Delhi. Bharti has also begun signing up lease-rental agreements with property developers and mall-operators to take the stores across the country.

The ‘always low prices’ retailer Wal-Mart scored over UK’s Tesco in the bid to sign Bharti as the best fit for the Indian market. The decision was swayed by a couple of recent visits by Lee Scott, president and CEO of Wal-Mart. Tesco is reported to have confirmed that it has called off talks with Bharti, putting an end to the much awaited partnership in the retail sector.

Wal-Mart Stores operates retail stores in various formats worldwide. It operates in two segments: Wal-Mart Stores and SAM’S CLUB. The Wal-Mart Stores segment comprises super centres, discount stores and neighbourhood markets, as well as an online retail format.

Wal-Mart operates 2,285 international stores and has sales of $312.4 billion, with 20% of its business coming from abroad. It buys products from over 70 countries.

Founded by Sam Walton, Wal-Mart began its overseas journey in 1991 and entered the Chinese and Korean markets through joint venture in 1996. Sam Walton came to the scene in 1960’s when the no-frills discount chains like K-mart built rings of stores around big cities in the US.

He tried out the discount approach in small towns that everybody had ignored. Far less competition and large small town population made Wal-mart a roaring success.

Though Wal-Mart opened its first retail stores in 1962, it confined its operations to the small towns for many years and later expanded its operations to big cities to overthrow biggies like K-Mart. Walton motivated workers through a stock-ownership pension plan that kept the shares in control of company executives.

Bharti has another venture FieldFresh Foods with EL Rothschild Group-owned ELRO Holdings India to export fresh agri-products exclusively to markets in Europe and the US.

While foreign firms are allowed to own 100% of an Indian wholesale operation and 51% in a single-branded retail business, the Indian law restricts them from owning a majority share in a chain selling multiple brands.

Saturday, December 02, 2006

Sino-Indian joint venture in oil

Expressindia

Energy-hungry India and China, often fierce rivals in the race for global oil and gas supplies, have agreed to form a joint venture company for acquisition of hydrocarbon assets in Africa and Latin America.

While the November 20-23 visit to India by Chinese President Hu Jintao produced plenty of economic commitments, the concept of increased collaboration on securing energy assets was clearly missing from the official agenda.

But this did not deter Petroleum Minister Murli Deora from using his old friend Chinese Commerce Minister Bo Xilai to get a midnight audience with Ma Kai, the all powerful chairman of National Development and Reform Commission, China's top planning agency.

Sources said Deora's unscheduled meeting with Ma Kai, who looks after seven key economic portfolios, including energy, brought about the critical meeting of minds on the need for the two countries to bid together for oil assets so as to avoid a price war.

"Both countries have in-principle agreed to work out a mechanism to bid jointly for oil and gas properties in Africa and Latin America. Indian and Chinese flagship companies will pool resources together to form a special purpose vehicle or a joint venture company to scout for assets in third countries," a source said.

An agreement for the purpose is likely to be signed in Beijing next month when Deora will visit to attend a ministerial meeting of oil importing countries.

China is hosting a meeting of energy ministers of US, Japan, Korea and India on December 15.

Also see:

Energy Security

LNG

Himalayan Trade